We have tracked forward commitments in annual reports across over 600 companies on four exchanges. Every promise management makes gets recorded. Every outcome gets checked in the following year. The dataset now spans over 6,500 tracked commitments, and the patterns are remarkably consistent regardless of geography.
Key Finding: Financial commitments (dividends, gearing targets, capital returns) have the highest delivery rate across all exchanges. Project timelines are the least reliable category. And the commitments that quietly disappear from the following year’s report without acknowledgment are the most telling signal of all.
Delivery Rates by Exchange
| Exchange | Companies with Data | Commitments Tracked | Delivered | Missed | Delivery Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASX | 159 | 3,061 | 1,796 | 865 | 58.7% |
| NZX | 101 | 2,661 | 916 | 146 | 34.4% |
| SGX | 26 | 377 | 193 | 106 | 51.2% |
| US | 151 | 453 | 368 | 0 | 81.2% |
The US number looks high because the dataset is younger: US coverage launched in March 2026 with one year of tracking per company. As multi-year data accumulates, the rate typically normalises downward. The ASX dataset, with seven years of depth on many companies, is the most mature benchmark.
What Gets Delivered
Financial commitments are delivered most reliably. When management says they will maintain a dividend payout ratio, target a specific gearing level, or return capital to shareholders, they usually do. These commitments are specific, measurable, and scrutinised by analysts. The accountability pressure is high.
Operational commitments sit in the middle. Efficiency targets, cost reduction programmes, and headcount plans have moderate delivery rates. They are less visible to external observers, which reduces the accountability pressure, but they are still concrete enough to be tracked.
Project timelines are the least reliable category. Whether it is a mine development, a branch expansion programme, or an international rollout, the pattern is consistent: management sets timelines that run optimistic. The project gets delivered eventually, but the pace almost always lags behind what the annual report implied.
The Disappearing Commitment
The most informative signal is not a missed commitment. A miss is transparent: management said they would do something and they did not. The market can price that information.
The more telling signal is the commitment that appears in one year’s annual report and simply does not appear in the next. No acknowledgment. No explanation. No update. It is as if the promise was never made.
Across our dataset, a significant proportion of undelivered commitments fall into this category. They are not reported as missed. They are simply absent. For investors reading a single year’s annual report, this pattern is invisible. It only becomes visible when you track the same company across multiple years.
The NZX Anomaly
The NZX delivery rate of 34.4% is notably lower than the other exchanges. This does not necessarily mean NZX management teams are less credible. The NZX dataset includes a higher proportion of smaller companies with ambitious growth plans and less analyst coverage. Smaller companies tend to set more aspirational targets and face fewer consequences when they are not met.
The ASX delivery rate of 58.7% across 159 companies and 3,061 commitments is the most reliable benchmark given the dataset maturity.
What This Means for Investors
Reading a single annual report tells you what management wants you to hear. Tracking the same management team across five or more annual reports tells you what they actually do. The patterns are persistent. A management team that delivers in year one tends to deliver in year five. A management team that lets commitments disappear does it repeatedly.
We track this across over 600 companies on the ASX, NZX, SGX, and US exchanges. The full per-company commitment tracking, delivery rates, and credibility trajectories are available in individual company reports.
This educational content is part of The Q Factor’s methodology documentation. This is not financial advice. Past patterns may not predict future performance. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.